Fall is often thought of as a time when homebuyers may find a better deal. But although sellers cut prices, rising mortgage rates erased those savings in many cities.
The average 30-year mortgage rate climbed nearly three-quarters of a percentage point between May and early fall, enough to offset lower asking prices in many cities.
Lower compared active single-family listings in May 2026 with listings active from September 12 to October 12, 2026, and estimated monthly principal-and-interest payments for each period. The analysis also looked at May and October data from 2020 through 2025.
Of the 226 cities analyzed, 163 had lower median asking prices in the fall than in May, but only 57 had lower estimated monthly mortgage payments.
In 106 cities, or 46.9% of all cities analyzed, median asking prices fell while the estimated payment rose. That's about 65% of the 163 cities where fall asking prices were lower.
Across all 226 cities, the median asking-price change was a 2.9% decline. The median estimated monthly payment change was an increase of about $118.
| |
2022 (May vs. Oct.) |
2025 (May vs. Oct.) |
2026 (May vs. Sept. 12 to Oct. 12) |
| Large cities analyzed |
215 |
241 |
226 |
| Avg. 30-year rate, May to fall |
5.23% to 6.90% |
6.82% to 6.25% |
6.44% to 7.17% |
| Cities with lower fall asking prices |
80.9% |
78.8% |
72.1% |
| Cities with lower estimated fall payments |
6.0% |
94.6% |
25.2% |
| Cities with a lower asking price but a higher estimated payment |
74.9% |
0% |
46.9% |
The 2026 fall period covers listings active Sept. 12 to Oct. 12, 2026, not the full month of October. Because rates fell in 2025, every city with a lower October asking price that year also had a lower estimated payment.
Why a Lower Asking Price Wasn’t Enough
With the average rate rising from 6.44% to 7.17%, a city’s fall median asking price needed to be about 7% below May’s just to keep the estimated payment the same. About 1 in 4 cities cleared that bar.
In 2022, the bar was much higher. The average rate climbed from 5.23% in May to 6.9% in October, so an October median asking price needed to be about 16.3% below May’s to break even. Lower-priced October inventory was common that year, but only 6% of cities saw asking prices fall far enough to offset the rate increase.
2025 showed the opposite. Rates fell from 6.82% to 6.25%, so lower October asking prices and lower rates worked in the same direction, and nearly every city had a lower estimated October payment.
In 2026, rates rose, but by less than half as much as in 2022. That left room for lower estimated payments in about a quarter of cities, compared with fewer than 1 in 10 in 2022.
What This Looked Like in Major Markets
Dallas, TX: A Bigger Price Gap, but Much Smaller Savings
| Dallas, TX |
2025 (May vs. Oct.) |
2026 (May vs. Sept. 12 to Oct. 12) |
| May median asking price |
$575,000 |
$575,000 |
| Fall median asking price |
$529,900 |
$525,000 |
| Asking price difference |
−$45,100 |
−$50,000 |
| May est. monthly P&I |
$3,567 |
$3,432 |
| Fall est. monthly P&I |
$3,101 |
$3,374 |
| Payment difference |
−$466/month |
−$58/month |
Dallas had the same $575,000 median asking price in May of both years, and its fall listings were priced lower both times. The 2026 gap was actually larger: $50,000, or 8.7%, compared with $45,100, or 7.8%, in 2025.
Yet the estimated monthly savings shrank from about $466 to about $58. In 2025, the average rate fell between May and October. In 2026, it rose. Dallas has seen the reverse outcome, too: in 2022, its October median asking price was $60,000 below May’s, but the estimated payment rose by $161 a month.
Seattle, WA: $30,000 Lower Asking Price, $248 Higher Payment
Seattle’s median asking price among active listings was $965,000 in May and $935,000 in the fall period, a $30,000 (3.1%) difference. The estimated monthly principal-and-interest payment still rose from about $5,760 to $6,008, or $248 more per month.
Atlanta and Houston followed the same pattern on a smaller scale. Atlanta’s median asking price was $31,000 lower in the fall period and Houston’s was $19,900 lower, but each had a slightly higher estimated payment.
How Other Major Markets Compared
Each of the 12 major markets below had a lower median asking price in the fall period than in May. Eight still had a higher estimated monthly payment. The four with lower payments (Dallas, Denver, Charlotte and Austin) all had fall asking prices at least 8% below May’s.
| Market |
May 2026 asking price |
Fall 2026 asking price |
Asking price change |
May est. P&I |
Fall est. P&I |
Payment change |
| Seattle, WA |
$965,000 |
$935,000 |
−$30,000 |
$5,760 |
$6,008 |
+$248 |
| Las Vegas, NV |
$542,939 |
$539,945 |
−$2,994 |
$3,241 |
$3,470 |
+$229 |
| Phoenix, AZ |
$500,000 |
$499,000 |
−$1,000 |
$2,984 |
$3,207 |
+$223 |
| Nashville, TN |
$639,000 |
$627,000 |
−$12,000 |
$3,814 |
$4,029 |
+$215 |
| Jacksonville, FL |
$335,995 |
$332,350 |
−$3,645 |
$2,005 |
$2,136 |
+$131 |
| Fort Worth, TX |
$350,000 |
$343,999 |
−$6,001 |
$2,089 |
$2,211 |
+$122 |
| Atlanta, GA |
$530,000 |
$499,000 |
−$31,000 |
$3,163 |
$3,207 |
+$44 |
| Houston, TX |
$369,900 |
$350,000 |
−$19,900 |
$2,208 |
$2,249 |
+$41 |
| Dallas, TX |
$575,000 |
$525,000 |
−$50,000 |
$3,432 |
$3,374 |
−$58 |
| Denver, CO |
$700,000 |
$640,000 |
−$60,000 |
$4,178 |
$4,113 |
−$65 |
| Charlotte, NC |
$519,000 |
$460,000 |
−$59,000 |
$3,098 |
$2,956 |
−$142 |
| Austin, TX |
$650,000 |
$557,900 |
−$92,100 |
$3,880 |
$3,585 |
−$295 |
Fall 2026 covers listings active Sept. 12 to Oct. 12, 2026. Markets shown are selected large cities that met the analysis requirements. Estimated payments are monthly principal and interest only.
Six Years of Spring and Fall Comparisons
The historical data shows the same relationship. Whether lower-priced fall inventory meant a lower estimated payment depended heavily on which way mortgage rates moved between May and October.
| Year |
Cities with lower Oct. asking prices |
Cities with lower Oct. est. payments |
Avg. mortgage rate, May to Oct. |
| 2020 |
42.7% of cities |
75.4% of cities |
3.23% to 2.83% |
| 2021 |
28.5% |
22.4% |
2.96% to 3.07% |
| 2022 |
80.9% |
6.0% |
5.23% to 6.90% |
| 2023 |
61.8% |
7.5% |
6.43% to 7.62% |
| 2024 |
67.2% |
94.5% |
7.06% to 6.43% |
| 2025 |
78.8% |
94.6% |
6.82% to 6.25% |
In each of the three years when the average rate fell between May and October (2020, 2024, and 2025), at least three-quarters of cities had a lower estimated October payment. In each of the three years when it rose (2021, 2022, and 2023), fewer than 1 in 4 did. With 25.2% of cities seeing lower estimated payments, 2026 is much closer to the rising-rate years.
Rates could also outweigh asking prices in the other direction. In 2020, fewer than half of cities had lower-priced October inventory, but falling rates helped push estimated October payments lower in about three-quarters of them. In Phoenix in 2025, the median asking price was $5,000 higher in October than in May, yet the estimated payment was about $150 lower.
In 2022, the rising-rate pattern showed up across major markets. Dallas, Houston, Denver, Seattle and Atlanta each had lower-priced October inventory that year, and each had a higher estimated October payment.
What This Means for Homebuyers
The takeaway isn’t that one season is better than another. The monthly cost of a home depends on both the price and the cost of borrowing, and the two don’t always move together.
- Focus on the payment you can afford. A lower asking price can still come with a higher monthly payment if rates rise. Compare full monthly costs, including taxes, insurance, and any HOA fees, not just list prices.
- Choose a home that fits your budget, not the calendar. Asking prices, inventory, and mortgage rates can all move differently from one year to the next. Over the seven years analyzed, neither May nor fall consistently came with a lower estimated payment.
- A bigger price gap doesn’t guarantee bigger savings. Dallas, for example, had a larger difference in fall asking prices in 2026 than in 2025, but a much smaller difference in estimated payments. Mortgage rates can make a bigger difference than the price gap alone.
"Experienced buyers recognize that higher mortgage rates can create opportunities to negotiate. When rates are higher, buyer demand often slows, giving buyers more negotiating power.
We're seeing buyers take advantage of this by negotiating lower purchase prices, asking sellers to cover closing costs, or even combining the two. One strategy that's particularly common right now is negotiating seller concessions to buy down the mortgage rate.
Temporary buydown programs, such as a 2-1 buydown, can also help buyers save on their monthly payments during the first few years of homeownership. For example, a buyer who qualifies for a 7% rate could make payments based on a 5% rate in the first year and 6% in the second before returning to the full 7% rate. When funded through seller concessions, this can provide some financial breathing room during those first few years." - Shawn Baird, Senior Executive Loan Officer at Lower
This analysis can't predict where home prices or mortgage rates will go next, or whether waiting for a particular season will lead to a better deal. But it does show why the price of a home and the cost of borrowing need to be considered together. Ultimately, the best time to buy is when you find a home that fits your needs and a monthly payment that works for your budget.
Methodology
Lower analyzed active single-family home listings from Movoto by Lower, comparing May and October of each year from 2020 through 2025. For 2026, the analysis compared May listings with those active from September 12 to October 12, 2026, rather than a full October calendar month.
The analysis included U.S. cities with populations of at least 100,000, based on the 2020 Census, and at least 100 active listings in both periods. To account for changes in inventory, fall listing counts also had to be between 50% and 200% of May levels. A total of 226 cities qualified in 2026.
Estimated monthly mortgage payments assume a 30-year fixed-rate loan with 5% down, using average weekly mortgage rates from Freddie Mac for each period. Payments include principal and interest only, excluding taxes, insurance, PMI, HOA fees and other ownership costs.
The analysis compares median asking prices across different sets of active listings, not price reductions on individual homes or final sale prices. Results reflect estimated payments based on market averages, not actual costs for individual buyers.
Sources
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
.jpg?quality=80&width=800)
